End of the ‘revenge spend’?
So much for revenge spending. The vacation splurge that Americans went on following COVID shutdowns seems to be flagging. Slower demand for hotel rooms and airline tickets — in the face of still-high inflation, rising borrowing costs and recession worries — has begun to weigh on price growth in those categories. Airfares sank 13% year-on-year in May, the most since March 2021, according to new U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Growth in hotel prices has also begun to slow. Analysts say those sudden drops could help push down inflation.
My post yesterday starred Delta’s CEO cheering “revenge travel”. Should he have waited a couple of days for this price-plunge graph?
1. Don’t look in your rear-view mirror or at confirming positive news about growth in menial wage jobs.
2. Struggle to look through your windshield into the economic fog caused by:
a. Fading covid stimulus spending
b. Rapidly mending supply-chains
c. New capacity chasing now fading demand
d. Interest-rate sensitive sectors like housing and RVs (down huge)
e. Global permacrisis factors which will ripple everywhere
f. One hotspot demand exception? Govt. build-it-back better, crony spending which will add to inflation, deficits and interest expense on the national debt.
3. The bullwhip sting will hit most distribution channels: more or less; sooner or later.
4. So, be more adaptable and opportunistic than your rear-view-mirror, confirmation-biased competitors.
But, you can’t rifle-in on best opportunities if you are taking care of a sea of modestly-losing, whining, non-growing minnow accounts + a few “big, potential” abusive accounts.
Best customer and SKU profitability analytics – from https://lnkd.in/gFv4DNWD – makes these fixes visible.
Revenge Spending Helped Push Prices Higher. The Trend Is Turning.
nytimes.com • 2 min read
Is the Bear Market really over?! 🐻 Time will truly tell. On Friday, the S&P 500 ended the day 20% above its highest close in 10 months. Great news!
😉 Today’s inflation report showed that inflation cooled overall in May. Airfare, meat, and dairy are just some items that fell in price.
Will this news lead to a pause in interest rate hikes?
⌚ The Fed meeting ends tomorrow and we’ll learn whether or not they are pausing. A lot remains to be seen about how this (or a surprise rate hike) would affect the markets.
As an investor, you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification is important. Comment below for a free investment review!